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<font face="Arial"><strong>Creative Public Finance</strong></font><font face="Arial" size="2"><br>
</font><font face="Georgia" style="font-size: 20pt"><strong>Poland on its
Way to Greece</strong></font><font size="2"><font face="Arial" size="5"><br>
</font><font face="Arial"><br>
Link: </font>
<a href="http://www.strategy.xaa.pl/Poland-on-its-way-to-Greece.pdf">
<font face="Arial">
http://www.strategy.xaa.pl/Poland-on-its-way-to-Greece.pdf</font></a><br>
</font> </div>
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<font face="Arial" size="2"><u>Fragments from the publication:</u></font></div>
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<font face="Arial" size="2"><br>
</font><font face="Verdana" size="2"><strong>Polish public debt revaluation
<br>
</strong>Poland’s public debt, but also the citizens’ has been growing like
an avalanche in the most recent period. Poles’ debt increased to 500 billion
zloty, but the most important is the dynamics of the increase of the debt.
Due to mortgage credits the private debt of the Poles grew from 34.5 billion
PLN in March 2005 to the amount of 286 billion PLN in May 2011, so within 6
years, the mortgage debt of the Poles grew by 728%. It is the dynamics of
debt increase translates into the dynamics of disposalble income of
households. <br>
For many years Poland will feel a great increase of obligations due to the
increase of mortgage debt of its citizens. Every crisis and even a period of
poorer market lookout will remind the Poles of the credit boom of the past 6
years. Even in the United States or Spain there has not been a similar
percentage of increase of debt of the citizens resulting from mortgage
credits. <br>
The situation is even more dramatic in Poland because more than half of the
value of mortgage credits is denominated in Swiss franc. The borrowers,
apart from the purchase of the house, they have taken speculative positions
in foreign exchange market. However, mortgage credit for a house or an
apartment is not the best instrument to invest in the Forex market. (…)</font></div>
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<font face="Verdana"><strong>Margin Analysis in Economy</strong><br>
The Union’s expenses for Poland in the amount of 2.3 percent of the Polish
GDP influence the growth of the GDP by at least 6 percentage points. It is
one of the symptoms of the multiplier effect of one event on another.
However, the influence of the economic stimulus may be more diversified. (…)<br>
Therefore if the increase of assistance from the Union had a multiplier
effect on the growth of the GDP in Poland, there is probably also a reverse
dependency. The fact that one is a net payer by Germany or France limits
their GDP much more significantly than it appears from the amounts
transferred. In case of Germany who pays the most into the Union budget, the
net spending of 12 billion euro annually means that, already with the view
of the perspective of next year, this expense lessens the GDP of Germany by
about 40 billion euro. Since it is the life cycle of analysis, then the lack
of means translates in a multiplier effect into subsequent years, etc. The
final effect means that the long-term contribution of Germany may turn out
to be an excessive burden that is visible only in 10-15 years. The amounts
that the Germans are giving away to the Union budget now plus the multiplier
effect in long-term may bring about the fact that the Germans will pay for
the Union several hundred billion euro (near one trillion) expressed in
current euro – this is the power of the multiplier effect in a long period
of time. (…)</font></font></div>
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