<p><span id="9999" style="display: none !important; font-size:0; line-height:0">捧杀比特币:绝世“机遇”如何堕落成惊天“骗局”(ad)</span></p><meta content="text/html; charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type" />
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                                                                        <td class="txtall1" height="13" style="color: rgb(204, 204, 204); line-height: 12px; font-size: 10px;">随着比特币的大涨和一些小伙伴们通过各种渠道依然在坚持“挖矿”,“一夜暴富”的渴望,久久地敲打着我们的心扉。</td>
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                                                                                                                        <img _attr="src" _v="http://www.gupiaofenxi.com.cn/old/uploads/171124/1-1G1240Q414423.png" align="left" alt="于小龙" src="http://www.gupiaofenxi.com.cn/old/uploads/171124/1-1G1240Q414423.png" style="padding: 0px 20px 0px 0px; float: left;" width="120" />随着比特币的大涨和一些小伙伴们通过各种渠道依然在坚持“挖矿”,“一夜暴富”的渴望,久久地敲打着我们的心扉。<br />
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                                                                                                                        然而,面对巨大利润,面对神秘的“比特币”,人们却本能地感到哪里不舒服、不对劲。<br />
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                                                                                                                        最近一些读者也纷纷,留言询问比特币,以及相关的“区块链”的投资问题。同样,面对财富的诱惑,“老衲”也实在把持不住了。<br />
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                                                                                                                        因此,本文希望能够将比特币的本质属性、投资问题和大家进行分享。我想基于对“比特币”,对货币的一些基础知识的了解。每个人会得出自己的理性判断——<b>“比特币”到底是个难得的“机遇”还是一个惊天“骗局”。</b></td>
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                                                                                                                        我们现在的交易:某宝上买手机。你付的钱不是直接给卖家,要通过支某宝一系列验证,可能还得提供一些不必要的个人信息。但万一哪天支某宝出问题,损失就大了,不光钱没了,个人隐私还泄露了。<br />
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                                                                                                                        比特币的诞生,就恰恰解决了这个问题。一手交钱,一手交货,而且是不通过移动支付等第三方的,买卖双方直接交易。交钱,走人。就算有问题,对方也不知道你家门牌号码。<br />
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                                                                                                                        但要是有纠纷怎么办?“我给钱了!”“你没给!”“给了!”“没给!”……<br />
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                                                                                                                        <b>这就引出了——“矿工”,这个神秘的存在</b><br />
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                                                                                                                        买东西的时候,我吼一嗓子,“我买了张三1斤土豆,给了他3块”。不管信不信,路人是不是都听到了?这笔交易记录就成了。<br />
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                                                                                                                        问题是:凭啥?路人凭啥给你记录?<br />
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                                                                                                                        答案:奖励。第一个记录并广而告之的,奖钱币1枚。<br />
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                                                                                                                        这些专门负责记录交易数据并广而告之的人就是“矿工”。他们对每一笔交易的有效性进行验证,进行记录,并上传到数据库,这个活被称为“挖矿”。</td>
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                                                                                                                        <p><strong><a  href="http://sctrack.sendcloud.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.html" style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); " target="_blank" ><u>一项治疗癌症的新技术已被解锁,你get到了吗?</u></a></strong></p>
                                                                                                                        一听到癌症,你最先想到的是什么,病人持续的痛苦?复杂冗长,却成功率很低的手术?确实,以往人们一旦患上癌症,基本生活就陷入无望。以脑癌为例,基因检测和手术方案制定、实施,前后需要160小时左右。这对于病人和医生都是沉重的负担。<br />
                                                                                                                        <br />
                                                                                                                        而现在,这种传统观念要被颠覆了。因为随着一项技术的解锁,机器人医生可以代替普通医生进行以上所有操作,并且已经有了成功案例。IBM公司研发的华生机器人,用10分钟就完成普通医生160小时的工作量。到2021年,手术机器人市场规模预计达到200亿美元,市场将增长525%。<br />
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                                                                                                                        <a  href="http://sctrack.sendcloud.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.html" style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); " target="_blank" >点击了解这项新技术>></a>,综合其他领域的应用,未来三年增长规模可到2280%,你可要抓紧了哦!</td>
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                                                                                                                        <b>区块链技术的最大优势:安全性,比特币的发行难以被政府和金融寡头控制。</b><br />
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                                                                                                                        <b>1.去中心,分散化,动态性。</b>应用了区块链技术之后,系统中的所有信息被分散到了每个节点,而且还是实时共享,即时变化的,相当于每个节点都是一个中心。这些节点有多少呢,数以百万计!<br />
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                                                                                                                        此情此景,像不像夜空中繁星闪烁,勾连成网,瞬息万变,有木有很壮观,是不是很美?!但对于黑客来说,这简直是噩梦!<br />
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                                                                                                                        因为,黑客要想成功入侵,必须同时攻数百万个实时变化的节点,还要抓取其中的信息,这比入侵银行系统那样的单一中心难太多了,简直是不可逾越的屏障。<br />
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                                                                                                                        <b>2.不可篡改。</b>“矿工”们是用哈希值(Hash code)来记录交易的。<br />
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                                                                                                                        哈希值就像空中的雨滴,而且还有“矿工”们的数字签名。黑客不入侵还好,要是真“黑进”来,但凡改一个地方,哈希值就变了。想再复原?对不起,不可能!想要通过计算得出两个完全一样的哈希值?不可能!<br />
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                                                                                                                        在区块链系统中,哈希值跟数字签名一起,构成了完整的的加密数据。<br />
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                                                                                                                        总之,有去中心分散化,动态更新实时共享,“哈希值+数字签名”这些“大绝招”傍身,区块链俨然“金刚护体”,再厉害的黑客也无法近身。同时,政府也不可能干预它的发行。</td>
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                                                                                                                        明白了比特币是怎样运作的,我们就不难明白比特币的“真实”价值,以及对现行货币机制将产生怎样的“颠覆”意义。<br />
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                                                                                                                        作为一种基于区块链技术的去中心化电子货币,比特币究其本质其实就是对于交易、信用的记录,并以此作为凭证进行结算的媒介。其实在这方面比特币与“金”“银”等传统货币没有什么区别。</td>
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                                                                                                                        比特币与“金”“银”等传统货币最大的不同是——“金”“银”等传统货币,能够被国际金融寡头和政府所控制。目前各个国家的黄金库存,各个交易所的黄金债券,都是有一个明确的实体中心进行操作的。而比特币所声称使用的“区块链”技术则避免了这种人为操纵。<br />
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                                                                                                                        其实,从这个层面来看,比特币和区块链是个不错的技术。<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">这也是比特币的“真实”价值所在。它解决了传统货币存在的“汇率操纵”和“货币超发”导致的通货膨胀问题。</b><br />
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                                                                                                                        谁也别想通过操纵货币升值或贬值,来获取贸易上的好处。政府和金融家也难以通过发行更多的货币来挽救自己的债务危机。作为一种交易结算货币、国际贸易结算货币,比特币将更倾向于体现商品消费的实际价值。<br />
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                                                                                                                        道理很简单,例如,中国人和美国人都干同样的工作,美国人的工资是8000美元/月,而中国人只有8000元人民币。凭什么美国工人的工资通过汇率计算,整整比中国工人多了5倍。<br />
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                                                                                                                        这是明显的不公平,这种不公,就是现行世界政治、军事、经济秩序所造成的。<br />
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                                                                                                                        同样,反过来也是一种不公平。中国和美国都生产同样的运动鞋,但是,在美国生产的卖100美元,而中国出口到美国的却只卖100元人民币(尽管,在中国国内卖600元人民币)。这种汇率的存在明显导致了中国在出口上的竞争优势。<br />
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                                                                                                                        如果,有了比特币,这种基于消费个体消费能力、消费记录的货币,那么中国对美国的货币价差(即汇率)将不复存在。整个国际金融秩序行将崩溃。<br />
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                                                                                                                        这也就是“极客”们把比特币比喻为一场货币革命的根源所在。<br />
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                                                                                                                        然而,问题恰恰也出在这里。“极客”们显然把问题想简单了。</td>
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                                                                                                                        从2010年5月22日,比特币在问世一年后派上了用场——一个名叫拉斯洛•汉耶兹(Laszlo Hanyecz)网页开发人员用10000个比特币换了两个披萨之后,区块链技术这一新模式正在不断推广。<br />
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                                                                                                                        对投资者来说,这不啻为一个好消息。首先,比特币在日本已经通过立法,成为了合法的支付方式,并制定了一系列监管措施。加拿大、英国、甚至美国也在拥抱这一大趋势。比特币和其它加密货币被应用于更多业务。<br />
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                                                                                                                        正如数字经济之父,唐•泰普斯科特(Don Tapscott)在《区块链革命》一书中写的那样,“区块链是一种记录了经济交易数据的、廉洁的数字账簿,通过编程应用,它不仅可以记录金融交易,实际上还可以覆盖全部有价值的东西。”<br />
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                                                                                                                        然而,就在这时问题也开始显现——唐•泰普斯科特显然把问题想简单了。</td>
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                                                                                                                        2014年,之前价值30美元的比特币,价值超过了500万美元。每个比特币价格达到了500美元。目前,之前价值30美元的比特币,则已经变成了天文数字。<br />
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                                                                                                                        一度默默无闻的比特币从不到一美分的价格,开始迅速上涨。同时,大量基于相同区块链技术的其他新兴电子货币,例如,以太坊、EOS等也纷纷竞相效仿。整个电子货币的发展甚至衍生出了ICO,初始代币发行产业。<br />
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                                                                                                                        截至2017年9月4日中国大陆叫停ICO前,据相关媒体报道,国内平台发起的ICO项目募集资金总额约在60-70亿元。虚拟货币交易平台共计73家,累计参与人次达到10万人以上。<br />
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                                                                                                                        在中国,以比特币为代表的众多虚拟货币,正在成为非法集资的重灾区。<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">虽然有人因比特币“一夜暴富”,但是也有98%的人血本无归。</b><br />
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                                                                                                                        在美国,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)甚至开通了比特币期货指数交易。这种交易其实并不涉及实际的比特币,而只是针对多家私人交易所的比特币价格指数进行对赌。比特币正在沦为一场资本游戏的筹码。<br />
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                                                                                                                        而在更广阔的灰色地带,由于比特币的匿名性,比特币甚至正在成为走私、行贿、洗钱和毒品交易等等非法交易的主要支付手段。<br />
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                                                                                                                        <b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">人类道德的高度决定着人类的技术能够走多远。届时,不是人类的毁灭,就是技术的消亡。</b><br />
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                                                                                                                        比特币的发明者,那个神秘的“中本聪”从一开始也许没有想到,技术的单纯并不能代替复杂的社会,也许一开始比特币就是一场资本的阴谋。<br />
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                                                                                                                        然而,不管怎样,把区块链技术理解为去中心化的应用,把比特币理解为对现实货币的颠覆显然过于天真。比特币在技术上实现了去中心化的同时,显然也失去了整个社会对其的监管与制约,进而沦为了欲望与资本的“垃圾场”。</td>
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                                                                                                                        <p><strong><a  href="http://sctrack.sendcloud.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.html" style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); " target="_blank" ><u>开会因为这个举动,老板决定给小明升职加薪……</u></a></strong></p>
                                                                                                                        小明在一家投资公司上班,平时上班倒也兢兢业业,不过现在还是一名普通员工。没想到在昨天一个重要会议上,他的一个举动得到老板赏识,当即就决定升任他为部门经理,并加薪2000。<br />
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                                                                                                                        原来是因为进入新一年后,公司一直为投资方向发愁。于是针对今年政府政策,可能会出现的市场因素,以及投资思路和资金走向召开了战略会议。不同于其他人千篇一律的PPT朗诵,当问到小明,他二话不说,左手一个电脑,右手一个投影仪,直接给大家播放起了一段视频。老板看完直呼精彩,结果你也知道了,小明走上了自己的人生小巅峰。<br />
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                                                                                                                        <a  href="http://sctrack.sendcloud.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.html" style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); " target="_blank" >点击查看视频</a>,也许你也会和小明一样,迎来下一个人生巅峰。</td>
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                                                                                                <td align="left" class="txtd"><span class="txti2" style="height: auto; text-align: left; color: rgb(204, 0, 0); line-height: 1.8em; padding-top: 20px; font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">无论“棒杀”还是“捧杀” 比特币都没有投资价值 </span></td>
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                                                                                                                        比特币的硬伤在于破坏有余而建设不足。其去中心化的设计与人类社会以权力为中心的组织形式格格不入。“权力”固然作恶不少,但是至少维持着这个社会的基本秩序。而比特币带来的所谓革命,则是将人性中最原始、最为贪婪的一面调动起来。<br />
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                                                                                                                        绝对的自由,意味着绝对的专制。标榜去中心化的比特币正在沦为资本的游戏工具,成为庄家收割中小散户的工具。<br />
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                                                                                                                        因此,对于金融制度尚不成熟,国民风险意识尚且淡漠的中国,政府对比特币采取了直接“棒杀”的方式,通过权力的一纸禁令将风险隔绝在系统之外。<br />
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                                                                                                                        而对于,金融市场异常发达的欧美国家,则把比特币引向了另一个歧途——彻底把比特币沦为资本“赌博”的工具,抵消其交易货币的属性。<br />
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                                                                                                                        <b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">与中国的棒杀相比,美国或者说华尔街金融家对比特币采取的是“捧杀”策略。</b><br />
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                                                                                                                        因为,没有人会拿暴涨的比特币当做购买商品的的货币。在暴跌的压力下,也没有人会大量储蓄比特币。去中心化的比特币缺少制衡暴涨暴跌的机制,没有庄家能为比特币最终负责。<br />
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                                                                                                                        这就是比特币,以及区块链技术的一个悖论,去中心化意味着市场没有庄家,缺少制衡投机炒作的机制,然而一旦有力量能够抑制“投机”,市场能够恢复理性,就意味着已经有庄家的出现。然而,此时,比特币也就失去了去中心化的投资价值。<br />
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                                                                                                                        <b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">这就意味着,无论是涨是跌,比特币都没有投资价值,只有短期炒作的投机操作。这种刀头舔血的“机会”和嗜赌成性的交易,不是中小散户能够承受的。</b><br />
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                                                                                                                        随着,比特币这场资本“盛宴”的结束,“区块链”技术也许能够找到其真正应用方向。目前,我们看到,在数据追踪、健康监控等等领域,已经有很多企业在进行“区块链”的相关商业开发。尽管目前区块链技术仍处于发展的初期阶段,但是相信比特币只不过是“区块链”技术的一个小插曲。在曲终人散之后,才是财富的正途。</td>
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                                                                                                                        于小龙<br />
                                                                                                                        《财务自由人》</td>
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