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<td class="txtall1" height="13" style="color: rgb(204, 204, 204); line-height: 12px; font-size: 10px;">1月9日—12日，在拉斯维加斯举行的全球最大国际消费电子展（CES）上，惊现“撞车”一幕：海信、LG、三星、索尼、联想、英特尔、百度、科大讯飞……都瞄准同一目标推出了新产品新技术。</td>
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第三石投资分析中心《2018投资展望》系列视频已经新鲜出炉，<a href="http://sctrack.sendcloud.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.html" target="_blank" >点击这里</a>，除了能见到所有的分析师（包括我），还有额外惊喜等着你。</td>
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文|姜伟</td>
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<img _attr="src" _v="https://picture-1255820567.cos.ap-beijing.myqcloud.com/tp/ZF/jiangwei.png" align="left" alt="姜伟" src="https://picture-1255820567.cos.ap-beijing.myqcloud.com/tp/ZF/jiangwei.png" style="padding: 0px 20px 0px 0px; float: left;" width="147" />1月9日—12日，在拉斯维加斯举行的全球最大国际消费电子展（CES）上，惊现“撞车”一幕：海信、LG、三星、索尼、联想、英特尔、百度、科大讯飞……都瞄准同一目标推出了新产品新技术。<br />
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是什么吸引了它们？<br />
<br />
百度的开放式自动驾驶平台Apollo；<br />
索尼的人工智能机器狗AIBO；<br />
科大讯飞的讯飞听见；<br />
讯飞晓译翻译机；<br />
讯飞语音合成系列芯片等多款人工智能产品……<br />
<br />
让这么多公司大力投入的，就是人工智能AI。<br />
<br />
<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">AI技术正在成为智慧时代新的通用技术，正在向消费端加速渗透，“AI+场景”正逐步落地。</b><br />
<br />
从AI的商业运用和成熟度来看，安防、医疗、教育等领域也逐步从导入期进入成长期，投资机会随之到来。<br />
<br />
“第三石”这次把焦点放在“<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">AI+医疗</b>”，探寻未来的商业机会，于是“<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>”便映入了我们的视野。<br />
<br />
（由于企业在相关技术的运用以及商业化进程方面尚未成熟，所以我们主要进行一些前瞻性的探讨。还望大家谨慎投资。）</td>
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<td align="left" class="txtd"><span class="txti2" style="height: auto; text-align: left; color: rgb(204, 0, 0); line-height: 1.8em; padding-top: 20px; font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">“AI+医疗”从美国来到中国</span></td>
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作为IBM公司开发的人工智能平台，2006年，Watson系统开始被研发用于“无限制问题”和“模糊观点”的解答。2011年，Watson参加了美国著名智力挑战节目“危险边缘”（Jeopardy）并取得冠军，因为所获奖金超过人类对手的总和而名噪一时。<br />
<br />
仅过了一年，IBM Watson系统就进而取得了美国的医师执业资格。<br />
<br />
此后，IBM Watson在斯隆•凯特琳癌症中心（MSKCC）接受培训。随着IBM神经元芯片的商用进程，2014年以后，IBM Watson系统逐渐成为斯隆•凯特琳癌症中心和安德森癌症中心的重要辅助医疗工具。2015年7月，Watson系统投入商用。<br />
<br />
作为AI在医疗行业的领导者和开拓者，IBM Watson在商业化进程方面取得了巨大突破。正是看到这一点，<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>积极参与了进来。<br />
<br />
2015年，<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>成立智慧医疗联盟，2016年2月，联合浙江大学、国内一流医院及专家，设立了浙江省沃森智慧医疗研究院，致力于医疗大数据的基础研究。同时，思创医惠利用IBM沃森人工智能技术，开展中国医疗专科智能化辅助诊疗研究，推动沃森人工智能在国内医疗行业的应用。<br />
<br />
2016年，<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>参股杭州认知网络科技有限公司，它是IBM沃森肿瘤解决方案在中国的指定运营服务商。<br />
<br />
目前，Watson在国内已经开展了试运营阶段的医疗服务。在病人已经确诊癌症种类的情况下，浙江省中医院专家和Watson系统组建联合会诊中心，制定下一步治疗方案。<br />
<br />
作为国内IBM沃森业务推广最早，应用落地最快的运营商，思创医惠在客户资源及产品优化方面具备较高壁垒，先发优势明显。随着国内对人工智能医疗的接受度越来越高，公司未来的IBM沃森业务将加速推广。<br />
<br />
不过，“<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">AI+医疗</b>”业务目前还处于技术和商业模式的初探阶段，并不具备大规模盈利的能力，从投资价值角度来讲，这仅仅是一个孵化项目。</td>
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<p><strong><a href="http://sctrack.sendcloud.net/track/click/eyJtYWlsbGlzdF9pZCI6IDQ0MTQyNywgInRhc2tfaWQiOiAiOTMyMDE4IiwgImVtYWlsX2lkIjogIjE1MTY1NzU4MjUwMzRfNzAyOTNfMjg3OTZfMjE1OS5zYy0xMF85XzRfNDgtaW5ib3VuZDk1JHBrZy1mb250cy1kZXZlbEBsaXN0cy5hbGlvdGguZGViaWFuLm9yZyIsICJzaWduIjogIjczZGIyZmY1MGIwZDJmNTJmN2E0ODNjOWY1YzVjYWY1IiwgInVzZXJfaGVhZGVycyI6IHt9LCAibGFiZWwiOiAiMTM4NDk3IiwgImxpbmsiOiAiaHR0cCUzQS8vd3d3LjNyZHN0b25lLmNvbS5jbi9Qcm9kdWN0XzFfTG9uZ19NYXJrZXRpbmdfUGFnZV9tb3JlLnBocCUzRmVpZCUzRDYzOSUyNm9waWQlM0Q1NCUyNnBhcnRuZXJzJTNEQWh1b3FfQ1hYX0NYWDA2MV9ERWhfMjAxODAxMjJodW9xdSUyNmVtYWlsJTNEcGtnLWZvbnRzLWRldmVsJTQwbGlzdHMuYWxpb3RoLmRlYmlhbi5vcmciLCAidXNlcl9pZCI6IDcwMjkzLCAiY2F0ZWdvcnlfaWQiOiAxMjc5NDJ9.html" style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); " target="_blank" ><u>来，给你一个“开袋即食”的投资机会</u></a></strong></p>
说重点！今天，给你来个直接又有诚意的投资项目，保证让你“开袋即食”…<br />
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无需你的调研，因为有关它的一切投资数据，已经完成；<br />
无需怀疑投资价值，因为比尔盖茨、李嘉诚等投资大佬已经进场为你开路；<br />
无需担心投资回报，因为未来三年，该项目的成长空间为2280%；<br />
无需担心如何下手，因为所有操作详情已经为你准备好了，你只管“开袋即食”……<br />
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<a href="http://sctrack.sendcloud.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.html" style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); " target="_blank" >立即点击，获取详情>>></a></td>
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不可否认的是，“<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">AI+医疗</b>”的商业前景充满想象，但从短期来看，其对企业的业绩影响可以说微不足道。那么，从战略角度看，企业现有业务的良好发展才能保证可持续性的投入，最终在“AI+医疗”领域取得成功。<br />
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自2010年上市之后，<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>通过业务拓展和外延并购，逐步形成了商业智能和智慧医疗两大板块。<br />
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其中，<b>商业智能板块</b>包括射频识别（RFID）标签与系统集成、防盗标签与其它两类产品；<b>智慧医疗板块</b>主要是医疗信息化产品。<br />
这两大板块都处在风口领域。<br />
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<b>商业智能：</b><br />
凭借在射频识别标签领域的技术优势和规模优势，<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>年产能力为15亿枚，可扩张至每年25亿枚。其产品实现了对门店的实时立体感知，构建了门店智能化运营的新生态，为“新零售”风口的到来做好了积极的技术储备。<br />
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<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>还是国内唯一一家电子商品防盗行业的上市龙头企业。产品销售遍及海内外，全球市场占有率超过30%，拥有绝对的规模优势。但受制于行业整体增速变缓，2014年起，公司电防盗标签（EAS）业务从高增速转入稳定增长，维持在5%-8%的增长率。<br />
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<b>智慧医疗：</b><br />
<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>已经涵盖了医疗信息化全产业产品，能够实现全产业链布局。据中商产业研究院发布的《2016-2020年中国智慧医疗行业市场分析及投资前景咨询报告》预测，2020年我国智慧医疗建设行业的规模将超过1000亿元。<br />
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<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>的电子标签和智慧医疗业务存在良好的结合点与协同效应，医疗领域也是物联网智能落地的核心应用场景之一。近期，公司正积极推进上述两方业务进一步深入整合，并在基于射频识别的智能被服、智能鞋、温度贴和床头卡等相关产品上加大力度。</td>
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2010年上市之后，<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>营收规模稳健上升。2015年并购医疗业务之后，营收开始加速上升。目前，思创医惠智慧医疗业务营收占比超过三成，毛利占比超过四成，成为公司的业绩主力军。</td>
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2016年，<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>智慧医疗、电子商品防盗系统（EAS）和射频识别（RFID）业务的营收占比分别为31%、44%和25%，智慧医疗营收占比接近三分之一。智慧医疗、防盗标签和射频识别三块业务毛利占比分别为41%、40%和19%。智慧医疗逐渐成为公司利润最主要的贡献力量。</td>
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<p><strong><a href="http://sctrack.sendcloud.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.html" style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); " target="_blank" ><u>给我爹买了个爱疯X，结果差点被他打死……</u></a></strong></p>
话说我爹现在还用那80分贝的老年机，这眼瞅着马上年底了，我寻思给他换个智能机。于是，昨天就买了一个爱疯X。然鹅，给他手机的时候，差点被他打死……<br />
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原因就是，他问我手机价格的时候，我回答“别担心，是一个比你还富的爸爸给买的。我什么都不用做，只等他给我送钱。我还打算让他帮我买个车呢……”就在我得意洋洋之时，只见我爸手举拖鞋，给我来了个“三连拍”。然鹅，我爸是真误会了，我并没有学坏，认什么干爹。跟他解释一番之后，他哭笑不得……<br />
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实际上，我所说的“富爸爸”并不是个真人。而且，这个“富爸爸”你也可以有哦……<a href="http://sctrack.sendcloud.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.html" style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); " target="_blank" >立即点击获取详情>>></a></td>
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相对于防盗标签和射频识别竞争过于激烈的现状，智慧医疗业务有着更好的商业前景以及较低的竞争环境，随着后者营收的不断提升，公司的毛利和净利将逐步抬升。<br />
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虽然业务前景和盈利能力有改善和发展的空间，但当前过高的估值仍需要业绩的逐步消化，才能获得一个好的时机。不然从投资回报收益率来看，即便未来业绩兑现，也并不是一个好的投资。<br />
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<b>综上所述：</b><br />
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AI在<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>的商业运作上还处于探索阶段，对企业价值尚未产生积极作用。纵观整个A股市场，不论是AI技术，还是商业运用，AI的商业价值都处在一个尚待开发的处境。<br />
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对于<b style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0); ">思创医惠</b>来说，“AI+医疗”的商业前景值得期待，可以作为长期跟踪的对象。但如果基于AI的角度去投资，那还为时尚早。<br />
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如果基于现有资产的发展，即便有改善空间和发展前景，但过高的估值和波动的市场定价将会给投资带来许多风险，并不是一个好的投资时机，需要耐心等待。<br />
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其实，通过AI+的案例我们可以清楚的发现，在一个商业前景巨大的行业，激烈的竞争和不确定的发展路径将给投资带来非常大的不确定性，投资回报不一定很好。这需要商业洞察力、对时机的把握和耐心等综合因素，所以好的前景并不一定就有好的回报。</td>
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